Just a few months ago, Canada’s Liberal Party looked headed for political extinction. After nearly a decade in office, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had become deeply unpopular. Economic stagnation, inflation, a worsening housing crisis, and a perception of arrogance in government leadership fueled widespread dissatisfaction. By late 2024, public opinion polling showed the Conservatives poised for a landslide. Facing mounting internal and external pressure, Trudeau resigned, opening the door for what many believed would be an inevitable Conservative victory under Pierre Poilievre.
According to Mr. Prokosch, the AP European History teacher,
“Justin Trudeau’s and the Liberal Party’s popularity has been gradually dropping over the past few years. However, after President Trump initiated a trade war with Canada, Trudeau actively resisted Trump’s nationalistic protectionist tariffs. Canadians rallied behind the former prime minister, thus boosting his popularity and the Liberal Party. It appears that Trump’s tariffs gave the Liberal Party the push it needed to win the most recent election and maintain control of the government. If you look at the polls before the Trump Tariffs, the Conservative Party was projected to win by a significant margin up until early 2025.”
As Geoffroy-Thibault Laroche-Richard, a Quebecois student at New Hartford put it, “People love to call him Trudope, but honestly, Trudeau doesn’t deserve all the hate he gets. There’s definitely a wave of anti-incumbency, and I think a lot of that frustration is being used by the Conservatives to push propaganda against the Liberals.
The Fall of the Conservatives
In the lead-up to Canada’s 2025 federal election, the Conservative Party, under Pierre Poilievre, appeared poised for a significant victory. Polls from mid-2023 to early 2025 indicated a strong lead, driven by public dissatisfaction with the Liberal government’s handling of inflation and housing affordability. However, the political landscape shifted dramatically due to the actions and rhetoric of the U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports, coupled with provocative statements suggesting Canada should become the “51st state,” ignited a surge of Canadian nationalism . This nationalist sentiment undermined
Poilievre’s campaign, as his previous alignment with Trump-style populism became a liability. Notably, Trump publicly dismissed Poilievre, stating, “The conservative that’s running is stupidly no friend of mine. I don’t know him, but he said negative things. When he says negative things, I couldn’t care less” .
The Rise of Mark Carney
Into this vacuum stepped Mark Carney, a respected economist who had served as Governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis and Governor of the Bank of England through the Brexit years. Though new to electoral politics, Carney presented a calm, competent alternative to both the outgoing Trudeau and the increasingly controversial Poilievre. His technocratic, issue-focused campaign struck a chord with voters exhausted by ideological battles.
“Most people I know voted for Carney because of his experience, in addition to the negative impacts the Conservatives would bring,” Laroche-Richard explained. “He helped Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and later handled Brexit. He knows how to manage serious problems.”
The result? A political earthquake. The Liberals rebounded to win 169 seats, just three shy of a majority. Meanwhile, the Conservatives underperformed, and in a shocking twist, Poilievre lost his own seat in Parliament, plunging his party into leadership turmoil.
Trump’s Shadow Over Canada
While domestic issues dominated headlines, many analysts credit an unexpected factor with swaying the election: the polarizing presence of U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including new tariffs on Canadian goods, combined with inflammatory remarks like making Canada the 51st state and referring to Prime Minister Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau,” sparked outrage across Canada.
“I disapprove of the Trump Administration,” Laroche-Richard said bluntly. “As of recently, he has constantly threatened my country’s national sovereignty.”
That anger didn’t just manifest in anti-Trump sentiment—it translated into rejection of Canadian politicians associated with Trump-style populism. Poilievre’s ideological closeness to Trump likely became a political liability.
“A lot of people connect Poilievre to Trump,” Laroche-Richard added. “That really hurt him here in Quebec.”
Quebec’s Surprising Turn Toward Unity
For decades, Quebec flirted with independence. Referendums in 1980 and 1995 nearly split the country, and French-language nationalism remained a key issue. But today, faced with growing international uncertainty and American hostility, a surprising new identity is forming: Canadian nationalism in Quebec.
“For 60 years, Quebec has wanted independence,” Laroche-Richard reflected. “But we’ve always been treated like second-class citizens. That kind of French nationalism is fading with the new generation. Ironically, Trump might be the one uniting Canadians. Now provinces like Quebec, Alberta, and Ontario are actually standing together against him.”
Alberta: The New Quebec
While Quebec moves toward unity, Alberta is experiencing a resurgence in separatist sentiment. Premier Danielle Smith announced that a referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada will be held in 2026 if a citizen-led petition garners sufficient support. The threshold for triggering such a referendum would be lowered under proposed legislation, requiring signatures from 10% of eligible voters from the previous election within 120 days .
Smith, though not personally endorsing secession, emphasized the right of Albertans to decide amid long standing grievances against federal policies. She criticized past Liberal governments for economically damaging regulations on Alberta’s oil industry and advocated for provincial autonomy in administering services.
The announcement follows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s re-election and U.S. President Donald Trump’s hostile trade rhetoric. Smith mentioned a negotiation team and a series of town halls, through the “Alberta Next” initiative, to address citizens’ concerns and seek changes in federal policy.
The Tariff Effect — and Economic Fallout
One of the most immediate consequences of the U.S.–Canada tensions has been economic. Trump has recently put tariffs on foreign goods, starting with Canada and Mexico and has justified them by stating “They’re ripping us off,” despite his involvement in the creation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, a free trade agreement between the nations. His tariffs on Canadian imports have sparked retaliation from Canada, disrupted supply chains, and driven up prices for ordinary citizens.
“Tariffs have been brutal,” Geoffroy said. “China and the EU are trying to fill the gap left by the U.S., strengthening ties with Canada. But it’ll take a few months before we really feel the benefits. My mom went to buy a new BMW—listed at $35,000—and at the dealership it was $45,000, all because of the tariffs.”
Not only have U.S. tariffs on foreign goods hurt the automotive industry, but also the menswear industry, with its effects not limited to national economies, but individual consumers.
“My preferred haberdasher is located in the Toronto area. Before the tariffs, they offered one of the best values in the menswear industry,” Mr. Prokosch notes. “However, with the various forms of tariffs applied to goods imported from Canada, it is financially impossible for me to purchase from them until the tariffs are lifted.”
The housing crisis also played a key role in the election, with many voters blaming foreign investors and lack of regulatory enforcement.
“It’s a mess,” Geoffroy noted. “A big reason is foreign investment from countries like Russia and China. Local
people are getting priced out.”
Trump’s Influence on Australia’s 2025 Election
The ripple effects of Donald Trump’s policies extended beyond North America, significantly impacting Australia’s 2025 federal election. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party secured a decisive victory, forming the largest center-left government since Australia’s federation in 1901, with at least 92 out of 150 House of Representatives seats .
This landslide was partly attributed to voter backlash against global instability linked to Trump’s policies. The opposing Liberal Party suffered significant losses, particularly in urban areas, leading to the appointment of Sussan Ley as its new leader—the first woman to lead the federal party .
Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including new tariffs, had tangible economic repercussions in Australia. Consumer sentiment dipped sharply following the announcement of these tariffs, although it showed a partial recovery in May 2025 .
Moreover, Trump’s policies influenced Australian political discourse. The emergence of the “Trumpet of Patriots,” a political party modeled after Trump’s ideology, signaled the spread of Trumpism in Australia. However, the broader Australian electorate appeared to reject this brand of politics, favoring progressive parties and policies that addressed systemic issues over divisive culture wars.
What Carney’s Win Means for the U.S.
Mark Carney’s victory ushers in a more pragmatic and economically focused era in Canadian leadership. Unlike his predecessors, Carney lacks a traditional political background—but that may be an asset as Canada looks to steady its footing on the world stage.
For the United States, this means:
Cooler heads in Ottawa: Canada may pursue more measured but firm resistance to American protectionism.
New diplomatic tensions: Expect more coordinated pushback against Trump’s policies from Canadian and European leaders.
A lesson in populist limits: Canada’s rejection of Trump-style politics may resonate beyond its borders.
As Carney assembles his cabinet and begins shaping his agenda, Canadians and Americans alike will be watching closely to see how one of the most unexpected elections in recent memory reshapes North American politics.
