With over 600,000 civilian deaths, 154,000 civilians tortured or incarcerated, and 6 million refugees since 2011, the Ba’athist Assad regime in Syria has shown to be one of the most brutal and oppressive since the establishment of the Third Reich. The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 has not only reshaped the nation but has also created a geopolitical ripple effect not just in the Middle East, but across the world.
For years, it was assumed that the Syrian Civil War had reached a frozen stalemate. The ceasefire established in 2020 left Assad in control of most major cities, while rebel factions remained confined to smaller territories. Many believed that, with the support of Russia and Iran, Assad had effectively won the war. However, this assumption was shattered in November 2024 when a renewed rebel offensive rapidly dismantled Assad’s power.
“In a complete shock to just about everybody, this renewed rebel offensive exposed the Assad regime in the country as an empty house of cards,” stated RealLifeLore, a YouTuber who specializes in geopolitics, history, technology, and scientific facts. Within just 11 days, the regime that had ruled Syria for over five decades fell, forcing Assad into exile in Moscow.
Following Assad’s departure, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other Turkish-backed factions swiftly established a transitional government. While HTS has historically been an Islamist militant group, even once aligning itself with Al-Qaeda, its recent political evolution raises questions about the direction of Syria’s governance. The transitional leadership, led by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, has vowed to stabilize the nation.
However, concerns remain over whether this new government will truly break from authoritarian rule or maintain HTS’s previous hard line Islamic policies. While the group has signaled a shift toward pragmatic governance, reports indicate that Sharia law still plays a role in legal structures.
“Initially, it seemed like the regime was revolving around Islamic Fundamentalism, like what happened in Iran in 1979,” states Mr. Prokosch, the AP European History teacher. “However, with HTS agreeing to a more unified, populist rule, the answer seems to be unclear.”
After the fall of Assad, HTS has been actively cooperating with other rebel factions to form a transitional government. On December 22, 2024, Aisha al-Dibs took the position of Head of the Women’s Affair Office, becoming the first woman to take political office in the country. With this significant development, the new regime is showing promises of inclusion of many groups. However, questions remain about whether this newfound political openness will last or if hard line elements will attempt to regain control.
“Many are concerned since the head of government was opposed to Western interests, even being affiliated with Al-Qaeda,” said Mr. Howard, the Humanitarian Law and War Crimes teacher. “However, Syria is looking to stabilize, and the best way to do so is aligning itself with the larger powers, such as the United States or China.”
This raises the question of whether the transitional government will lean toward forming closer ties with NATO nations or seek alternative alliances with global powers like China.
The fall of Assad has had immediate and severe consequences for his biggest allies: Iran and Russia. For Iran, Syria was the crucial land bridge to its proxy force, Hezbollah. With Assad gone, Iran’s ability to support Hezbollah in Lebanon is significantly weakened.
“Iran has also probably lost that invaluable land bridge across Syrian territory that they’ve been able to reliably use to support Hezbollah for decades,” RealLifeLore explained. Furthermore, Israel’s recent military operations have devastated Hezbollah’s forces, with some estimates stating that 80% of its missile arsenal has been destroyed.
Russia, on the other hand, faces the potential loss of its two key military bases in Syria: the naval base at Tartus and the airbase at Khmeimim. These bases were critical for Russia’s military operations in the Mediterranean and Africa.
“If the new government in Syria revokes Russia’s leases and access to the bases, it’ll be catastrophic for Russia’s current strategy,” RealLifeLore noted.
However, there is a possibility that Russia gets to keep its strategic bases in Syria due to the suspiciously increasing friendliness of the Trump administration to Putin’s regime.
The Syrian Civil War displaced millions of people, creating one of the largest humanitarian crises in modern history. Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, and European nations took in large numbers of Syrian refugees, straining resources and fueling political debates on immigration. However, with the war coming to an official end, experts suggest that the refugee crisis may finally begin to subside.
“The end of the Syrian Civil War will most likely lead to a reduction and eventual end in the refugee crisis,” Mr. Howard explained. “Syrian nationals may even start returning from countries that have long held refugees, such as Turkey and Germany.”
Turkey, which currently hosts around 3.6 million Syrian refugees, has already begun efforts to return Syrians to their homeland. Meanwhile, in Germany, recent election results have shifted the political landscape toward more conservative and far-right parties, such as the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Alternative for Germany (AfD). These parties have historically advocated for stricter immigration controls and reduced refugee intake, which could lead to fewer protections for Syrians seeking asylum and more policies encouraging their return home.
As public sentiment in Germany turns more critical of immigration, voluntary repatriation efforts may increase as refugees face greater political and social pressure to leave. While the German government has provided asylum and integration programs for over a million Syrians since the war began, these new political shifts may result in policies that incentivize or pressure refugees to return to Syria—especially if the new government secures diplomatic agreements with Syria’s transitional leadership.
The success of repatriation efforts will ultimately depend on how stable and secure Syria becomes under its new government. If reconstruction efforts improve living conditions and economic opportunities, more refugees may willingly return. However, if instability continues, many may remain hesitant to leave despite increasing restrictions in host countries.
Under Assad’s regime, human rights abuses were widespread, with mass incarcerations, torture, and chemical attacks on civilians. While the new government has promised reforms, human rights organizations remain skeptical. Reports suggest ongoing restrictions on free speech, crackdowns on dissent, and uncertainty over legal protections
Women’s rights under the transitional government also remain a significant concern. While there have been indications of an easing of restrictions, HTS’s past policies suggest that women may face stricter limitations in education, employment, and public life compared to the Assad era.
“There are factions in Syria that are hoping that this period in time can be a time for social liberalization,” Mr. Howard noted. “The reality is whoever comes out on top of the pile. If we see more secular leaders, we may see more women’s and minority rights, but if conservatives are more prominent, it may be comparable to the current situation in Iran.”
The fall of Assad marks the beginning of a new chapter for Syria, but many questions remain. Will the new government embrace a more open and democratic system, or will it follow the authoritarian tendencies of the past? How will the power shifts in the region impact long-term stability?
Meanwhile, the humanitarian toll of the war may finally begin to ease. With a fragile government working to establish order and millions of displaced Syrians considering a return home, the world watches to see if Syria can rebuild itself from the ruins of war. The international community must decide how to support these efforts, balancing diplomacy with humanitarian aid.
As Syria moves forward, its future remains as uncertain as ever.
